AHEAD OF PRINT

The month ahead, reported from the odds

Printed Tuesday, 20 October 2026
Edition of Thursday, 19 November 2026

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Politics

Yashar party won election, Gadi Eizenkot became Prime Minister

The Yashar party secured victory while Gadi Eizenkot took the premiership and Likud fell below twenty seats.

35% certain
lead market 35%next 35%1 venuesettles Wed 28 Oct3 markets behind this

Israel's 2026 parliamentary election concluded on Wednesday with the Yashar party emerging as the largest faction. The victory positioned former chief of staff Gadi Eizenkot to assume the premiership. The long-dominant Likud party fell to fewer than twenty seats, a sharp decline from previous terms.

Yashar's win provided the party with a clear mandate to shape the new coalition. With Likud reduced to under twenty seats, its capacity to command key ministries diminished significantly.

Yashar's triumph displaced Likud from its long-standing role as the leading party. The new balance of power places the former military chief at the head of the government. Likud's representation of fewer than twenty seats marks its smallest parliamentary presence in recent cycles.

The Yashar party now leads the 26th Knesset. Gadi Eizenkot has been designated the Prime Minister by the election results. Likud holds fewer than twenty seats in the parliament.

Analysis

Yashar's ascendancy suggests voters favored a platform distinct from the traditional right-wing agenda, potentially opening space for new policy priorities, especially in security and diplomatic matters.

Gadi Eizenkot's elevation to Prime Minister brings a figure with extensive defense experience to the civilian leadership role. His background may translate into a more assertive security posture, but it also raises questions about how he will manage civilian ministries and balance coalition demands, given the fragmented nature of the Knesset after the vote.

Likud's reduction to fewer than twenty seats curtails its Legislative leverage and forces it into a minority opposition stance. The party will need to reassess its strategy, possibly seeking alliances with other right-leaning factions or redefining its platform to remain relevant, while the overall political equilibrium remains uncertain as coalition negotiations progress.

What this was built from

Each claim above traces to a market below, at the price it was trading when this edition went to press.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot, 50% settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Yashar, 70% settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: <20, 35% settles Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · polymarket · see the market
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