# US-backed Yemen ceasefire held through October as other talks stalled

*World. 92% certain. Sunday, 1 November 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**The U.S.-backed truce survived October while Saudi Arabia and the Houthis did not reach a cease-fire.**

A United States-backed cease-fire in Yemen remained in force through the end of October. By contrast, Saudi Arabia and the Houthi rebels failed to announce a cease-fire agreement by 31 October. No effective cease-fire between the Houthis and Saudi forces was in place at the same deadline. Iran and Oman did not conclude a Hormuz agreement, and Iran did not impose the anticipated Hormuz fees.

The U.S.-backed truce was confirmed to have continued through 31 October.

No cease-fire agreement between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi rebels was announced by the 31 October deadline. Negotiators had been expected to present a joint statement before the end of the month. The absence of such an announcement was logged on Sunday, 1 November.

An effective cease-fire between the Houthis and Saudi forces was not in effect by 31 October. Reports indicated that hostilities continued despite broader diplomatic efforts.

Iran and Oman did not reach a Hormuz agreement by the 31 October deadline. The parties had been expected to formalise terms for navigation and security in the strait. Additionally, Iran did not impose the projected Hormuz fees by the end of October. Both developments were noted on Saturday, 31 October, and Sunday, 1 November respectively.

## Analysis

The continuation of the U.S.-backed cease-fire demonstrates that American diplomatic engagement retained some leverage in Yemen, even as other negotiations faltered. This stability may help prevent a broader escalation of fighting, but it does not resolve the underlying political divisions that fuel the conflict.

The failure of Saudi Arabia and the Houthi rebels to reach a cease-fire agreement leaves a key front of the war unresolved. Without a formal pause, clashes are likely to persist, affecting civilian safety and hindering humanitarian aid delivery in contested areas.

Iran's inability to secure a Hormuz agreement with Oman and its decision not to impose the expected Hormuz fees keep shipping through the strait under the same regulatory environment as before.

While the U.S.-backed truce offers a limited buffer, the lack of progress on Saudi-Houthi and Iran-Oman fronts means that the broader regional tensions remain unresolved, and future developments will depend on the willingness of the parties to re-engage in negotiations.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [Houthi–Saudi conflict - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi%E2%80%93Saudi_conflict)
- [Houthi-Saudi conflict | 2026, History, Reasons, Oil, & Maps | Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/event/Houthi-Saudi-conflict)
- [Conflict in Yemen and the Red Sea | Global Conflict Tracker](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/war-yemen)
- [2026 Yemen offensives - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Yemen_offensives)

## What this was built from

- **US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?**: Yes, 94%; settles Saturday, 31 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-yemen-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt)
- **Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?**: No, 96%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-houthi-ceasefire-agreement-announced-by)
- **Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31?**: No, 92%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/houthi-x-saudi-arabia-effective-ceasefire-begins-by-20260916)
- **Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?**: No, 92%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260625175035466)
- **Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?**: No, 93%; settles Saturday, 31 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-oman-hormuz-management-agreement-byptptpt-20260804222725871)