# Israel kept ceasefire with Iran through October

*World. 87% certain. Sunday, 1 November 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Israel made no accusations over the plane stabbing and launched no attacks on Syria or Greater Beirut.**

Israel maintained its ceasefire with Iran through October. The government made no accusation that Iranian proxies were involved in the plane stabbing incident. It also refrained from new military actions against Syria and Greater Beirut.

The ceasefire, which began earlier this year, remained in force on Saturday 31 October. No incidents breaking the truce were recorded during the month.

Israel's security agencies did not publicly attribute the stabbing on the Israel-bound flight to Iran or its proxy groups. No formal statement linking the incident to Tehran was issued. The matter remained under investigation without reference to Iranian involvement.

Israeli forces did not conduct any strikes or other military operations in Syrian territory during October. No air raids, artillery fire, or ground incursions were reported. The Syrian Ministry of Defense recorded no Israeli attacks on its soil for the period.

Similarly, Israeli forces did not launch any attacks targeting Greater Beirut through the end of October. No missile or drone activity was observed over the Lebanese capital. Lebanese authorities reported no incidents involving Israeli military action.

## Analysis

The persistence of the ceasefire through the end of October reduces the immediate risk of a broader conflict between Israel and Iran, limiting opportunities for escalation that could draw in regional allies.

By abstaining from publicly blaming Iranian proxies for the plane stabbing, Israel avoids heightening diplomatic tensions while the investigation proceeds, preserving a diplomatic posture that leaves room for negotiation or de-escalation.

The absence of Israeli strikes in Syria and Greater Beirut indicates a restraint that may stabilize front-line dynamics, limiting civilian casualties and keeping neighboring states from retaliatory measures that could otherwise expand the conflict.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [What we know about stabbing on Flydubai flight to Israel](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqjdv7pmj9dno)
- [Pilot stabbed his co-pilot in apparent attempt to crash Israel-bound plane, Netanyahu says](https://www.nbcnews.com/world/middle-east/flight-dubai-tel-aviv-diverted-emergency-alert-rcna600628)
- [Too early to say whether Iran involved in Dubai-Tel Aviv flight attack, Israeli PM says](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqgmrm7xd8wyo)
- [Screaming, Panicking, Blood: Passengers Detail Horrifying Israel-Bound Flight](https://www.today.com/news/israel-flight-flydubai-attack-rcna600896)

## What this was built from

- **Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?**: Yes, 88%; settles Saturday, 31 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963)
- **Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?**: No, 97%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-accuses-iranproxies-of-plane-stabbing-incident-by-oct-31)
- **Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026?**: No, 87%; settles Saturday, 31 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-syria-byptptpt-21)
- **Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?**: No, 87%; settles Saturday, 31 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-beirut-byptptpt-20260708221422557)