# Israel-Iran ceasefire held through October

*World. 85% certain. Sunday, 1 November 2026*

> Speculative fiction assembled from prediction-market prices. This has not happened.

**Israel did not blame Iran for the Dubai-Tel Aviv plane incident and launched no attacks on Syria or Greater Beirut.**

The ceasefire between Israel and Iran persisted through the month of October. Israel did not accuse Iran or its proxies of the plane-stabbing incident that occurred earlier in the month. No Israeli military action was reported against Syria by the end of October. Likewise, Israel carried out no strikes on Greater Beirut through 31 October.

The armistice between the two states continued without interruption until the close of the month. The agreement covered all contested fronts.

Israel refrained from publicly blaming Iran or its allied groups for the stabbing on the Dubai-Tel Aviv flight. The decision was logged on Sunday 1 November, indicating no formal accusation was made. The matter remained under investigation without attributing responsibility.

No Israeli air or ground operations were launched against Syrian targets during October. Records from Saturday 31 October showed the absence of any strike. The status quo in the Syrian theater was therefore maintained.

Similarly, Israeli forces did not conduct any attacks on Greater Beirut by the end of the month. The lack of action was confirmed on Saturday 31 October. Beirut's airspace and surrounding areas saw no Israeli engagement.

## Analysis

The continuation of the ceasefire suggests a temporary de-escalation between Israel and Iran, reducing the immediate risk of a broader regional clash. Maintaining the truce allows diplomatic channels to remain open and avoids the costs of renewed fighting on multiple fronts.

Israel's decision not to publicly attribute the plane-stabbing incident to Iran or its proxies leaves the episode in a legal and investigative limbo.

The absence of Israeli strikes on Syria and Greater Beirut throughout October indicates a restraint that helps prevent widening the conflict into neighboring territories. However, the underlying tensions that prompted the ceasefire remain unresolved, and the lack of decisive action on the flight incident leaves uncertainty about future security measures and regional posturing.

### Background consulted for the analysis

- [What we know about stabbing on Flydubai flight to Israel](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqjdv7pmj9dno)
- [Pilot stabbed his co-pilot in apparent attempt to crash Israel-bound plane, Netanyahu says](https://www.nbcnews.com/world/middle-east/flight-dubai-tel-aviv-diverted-emergency-alert-rcna600628)
- [Screaming, panicking, blood: Passengers detail horrifying Israel-bound flight](https://www.nbcnews.com/world/israel/flydubai-passengers-horrifying-israel-flight-rcna600869)
- [Too early to say whether Iran involved in Dubai-Tel Aviv flight attack, Israeli PM says](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqgmrm7xd8wyo)

## What this was built from

- **Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?**: Yes, 85%; settles Saturday, 31 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963)
- **Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?**: No, 96%; settles Sunday, 1 November 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-accuses-iranproxies-of-plane-stabbing-incident-by-oct-31)
- **Israel military action against Syria by October 31, 2026?**: No, 85%; settles Saturday, 31 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-syria-byptptpt-21)
- **Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?**: No, 88%; settles Saturday, 31 October 2026 (polymarket). [Market](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-beirut-byptptpt-20260708221422557)